منابع مشابه
Hindsight bias among psychiatrists.
It is crucial to minimize bias when offering forensic opinions; however, to our knowledge there are few, if any, existing data examining whether psychiatrists are susceptible to one source of such bias, hindsight bias. In the current study, 235 general and forensic psychiatrists reviewed hypothetical cases in which patients with suicidal or homicidal ideation presented for psychiatric care. We ...
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People who know the outcome of an event tend to overestimate their own prior knowledge or others' naïve knowledge of it. This hindsight bias pervades cognition, lending the world an unwarranted air of inevitability. In four experiments, we showed how knowing the identities of words causes people to overestimate others' naïve ability to identify moderately to highly degraded spoken versions of t...
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Hindsight bias is the well researched phenomenon that people falsely believe that they would have correctly predicted the outcome of an event once it is known. In recent years, several authors have doubted the ubiquity of the effect and have reported a reversal under certain conditions. This article presents an integrative model on the role of surprise as one factor explaining the malleability ...
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An underlying theme common to prominent theoretical accounts of cognition in schizophrenia is that information processing is disproportionately influenced by recently/currently encountered information relative to the influence of previously learned information. In this study, the authors tested this account by using the hindsight bias or knew-it-all-along (KIA) paradigm, which demonstrates that...
متن کاملHindsight Bias, Risk Perception, and Investment Performance
Once they have observed information, hindsight biased agents fail to remember how ignorant they were initially, “they knew it all along.” We formulate a theoretical model of this bias, providing a foundation for empirical measures, and implying that hindsight biased agents conduct incorrect learning about volatility. In an experiment involving 67 students from Mannheim University, we find that ...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Analysis
سال: 2018
ISSN: 0003-2638,1467-8284
DOI: 10.1093/analys/any023